As I sit here scrolling through the latest NBA mock drafts, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of excitement and skepticism. We're just weeks away from the 2023 NBA Draft, and if there's one thing I've learned covering basketball over the years, it's that draft night always delivers surprises. Remember last year when Paolo Banchero went first overall despite most experts having Jabari Smith Jr. pegged for that spot? Yeah, that's why I take these mock predictions with a grain of salt.
Looking at this year's class, Victor Wembanyama is the undeniable crown jewel - the French phenom stands at an incredible 7'4" with a wingspan measuring approximately 8 feet, and his ability to handle the ball and shoot from deep makes him a generational talent. The Spurs landing him feels like destiny, given their history of developing international big men. But here's where it gets interesting for me - the real drama begins after that first pick. Brandon Miller versus Scoot Henderson for number two? I'm personally higher on Henderson despite the Hornets' apparent interest in Miller. Henderson's explosive athleticism and improved shooting (he's increased his three-point percentage from 21% to nearly 35% this past season) give him superstar potential that's too good to pass up.
What fascinates me about this draft process is how team needs often override pure talent evaluation. It reminds me of that situation with Molina and Meneses in the PVL - sometimes partnerships end, even successful ones, because circumstances change and new opportunities arise. NBA teams face similar calculations. The Trail Blazers at pick number three need to decide if they're building around Damian Lillard or preparing for life after him. If they keep the pick, I'd bet they take Scoot Henderson if available, creating either the most dynamic backcourt in the league or setting up Lillard's eventual successor.
The middle of the lottery is where things get particularly messy. The Rockets at number four desperately need defensive identity, which makes Amen Thompson's 6'7" frame and elite athleticism incredibly appealing. Meanwhile, the Pistons at five have to find shooting to space the floor for Cade Cunningham, making Brandon Miller's 40% three-point shooting in college awfully tempting if he slips past Charlotte. Personally, I think Cam Whitmore from Villanova is being undervalued in most mock drafts - his combination of strength and scoring instinct reminds me of a young Jaylen Brown.
As we move into the late lottery, team fit becomes everything. The Jazz at nine need wing defense, the Mavericks at ten require immediate contributors to help Luka Doncic, and the Magic at six and eleven could go in multiple directions. I've noticed Anthony Black's stock rising dramatically in recent weeks, and having watched him closely at Arkansas, I understand why - his 6'7" point guard frame and defensive versatility make him a perfect modern NBA player.
What many fans don't realize is how much behind-the-scenes maneuvering happens in the weeks leading up to the draft. Teams leak misinformation, agents push narratives, and prospects move up and down boards based on private workouts. It's a high-stakes poker game where millions of dollars and franchise trajectories hang in the balance. The uncertainty reminds me of that PVL situation - sometimes what seems like an obvious fit doesn't materialize, while unexpected partnerships form. That's why I wouldn't be shocked if we see someone like Gradey Dick, who shot an incredible 40% from three at Kansas, leap into the top ten despite being projected in the late teens by most analysts.
As draft night approaches, I'm keeping my eye on a few sleepers - Jordan Hawkins' movement shooting could make him a steal outside the lottery, and Dereck Lively's rim protection might be exactly what a contender needs. But if there's one prediction I feel confident about, it's that at least three teams will make picks that leave everyone scratching their heads, because when has the NBA draft ever gone exactly according to plan?